Ten Odd Economic Indicators: Hot Waitresses, Men’s Underwear, Blacked-Out Football Games, and More

It’s hard for the lay person to wrap one’s brain around the rise or fall of GDP, new residential sales, money supply, and other traditional economic indicators. What do those numbers really mean? Well, here are some other indicators that do as advertised, truly indicating in simple terms how people are living, what they’re doing to keep themselves busy or make ends meet, and what they’re buying—or not buying—in today’s economic climate.

The signs are everywhere. You know the economy is struggling big time when your underwear is old, the armed forces don’t need recruits, there’s a hot resale market for cemetery plots, you can’t find the local pro football game on TV, your rich neighbors are clipping coupons, and your waitress looks like Megan Fox. That is, if you’re eating out at restaurants at all.

1. Appalachian Trail Hikers. When the going gets tough, the tough take a hike. There’s been a spike in the number of hikers making the long trek—meaning plenty of people have plenty of free time on their hands.

2. Immigrants in the U.S. After rising for decades, the number of foreign-born residents has stalled. Apparently, immigrants just aren’t as attracted to this country as they once were.

3. Men’s Underwear Index. When the economy is stable, the sale of men’s underwear remains flat and strong. But when money is tight, sales drop pretty quickly as men tend to wear their skivvies more times before replacing them. After all, nobody (or not that many people) sees your tightie whities or boxers. In 2009, men’s underwear sales are expected to be down for the first time in years.

4. The Reselling of Cemetery Plots. When people buy one of these, you gotta assume that the thought never entered their heads that one day they’d want to—or have to—sell before putting them to use. People need the money, and suddenly cremation is cool.

5. Pro Football Games Blacked-Out on TV. As the NFL season opened, a dozen teams had not sold out their home games, and with blackout rules that means that viewers at home might not be able to watch those games on TV. They blackout games to encourage people to buy tickets, but fewer folks today are eager to drop big bucks on something that (normally) they can enjoy for free from home. Blackouts are just one reason fans may feel alienated by the NFL.

6. Fewer Babies Born, Fewer Babies Planned. In one survey, 44 percent of women said that they were going to put off having kids or have fewer kids because of the economy.

7. The Toughness of Marine Ads. The Marines have met all of their recruitment goals, as typically occurs when the job market is bad. And so ads on TV are showing the toughest side of being a Marine, with barbed wire and even some dry heaving. Why? Because now they can be picky, and they want to attract the toughest, most highly motivated recruits.

8. Coupon Redemption. The numbers are already up 23 percent so far this year, demonstrating that people are eager to save money. And you know who is more likely to be clipping those coupons? Folks who are well-to-do.

9. Long-Distance Relationships. Because job prospects are so hard to come by, people are more inclined to relocate for a good offer, even if that means leaving a loved one behind.

10. The Hot Waitress Index. Here’s the theory: When times are flush, attractive women in big cities have many opportunities to make money through marketing gigs, modeling, hosting parties, and such. When times are less than flush, those opportunities dry up, and then restaurateurs scoop them up to wait tables—and to attract diners who like being served by hot waitresses.

Read more about other economic indicators, including animal abandonment, backyard gardens, and paper box production.

Related Topics: Appalachian Trail, babies, cemetery plots, clothes, economic indicators, families & children, food, hot waitress index, immigrants, Marines, men's underwear index, NFL, recession porn, restaurants, tv, Budgeting, Careers & Workplace, Saving & Spending, Smart Spending
  • brianbking

    Your #1 has no factual support for a connection to the economy; the writer of the story you cite had his mind made up in February. The number of hikers is up this year–still half the number of 2000–after eight years of decline. If you had no job or prospects, would you spend $4,000 to $6,000 on a hike? How many of 1,450 would say, “The recession made me do it”?

  • Brad Tuttle

    Thanks for your comment. The writer of the story I’m citing, in the WSJ, is not hiking the trail, so I’m not sure what you mean. The gentleman featured in the lead of that WSJ story is quoted as saying the following:

    “I wouldn’t do this if I was employed,” the New Jersey native explains. “I couldn’t find any work, so I just decided to take a walk.”

    Seems like the economy is playing a role here. That’s certainly the impression that the WSJ gives, even calling the rise in hikers “trailing indicators.”

    And I think a lot of people without jobs or prospects do seriously consider taking some adventure around the world or going off on a trail. It’s hard to decide to up and do such a thing if you’re gainfully employed. But if a job isn’t holding you back, why not? In many cases, the money they spend is not much more than what they’d be spending while staying at home struggling in frustration to find jobs that just don’t exist.

  • dpatonsr

    Spending $4-$6K on a 4-6 month hike is an economical lifestyle for many that hit the trail (they don’t have a lot of “stuff”). Where else can you live that cheap?
    If you have a $3K/month mortgage payment and don’t have a job, you might as well go and enjoy the hike. The attorney’s will have settled your affairs for you by the time you get back anyway.

  • jiveturkey94

    Ah, the Trail. For stats and info go to http://www.appalachiantrail.org/site/c.mqLTIYOwGlF/b.4805579/k.DA92/2000Milers_Facts_and_Statistics.htm

    I completed my thru-hike of the trail in 1994 when I was 22. I was young with no responsibilities, and a body that could recover from the 12-15 miles that you hike every day. If anyone thinks it’s an inexpensive way to escape and kill 6 months, you’ll be part of the 1/3 that don’t make it the 160 miles to Fontana Dam, N.C.

    The reason for the increased interest in the Trail around 2000 was Bill Bryson’s book, “A Walk in the Woods.” A good read, but he doesn’t make it too far, and falls into the 75% of people that drop off the trail.

    Now, where do I find these hot waitresses?

  • oaktree246

    How about the number of cancelled Internet accounts? This is the last that people let go: they will skip the credit card payments, skip going to the doctor (they can alway check their symptoms online), they will even cancel the cable, but it is hard to give up the Internet. My guess is that it has bottomed for a bit, but as unemployment benefits run out, we are going to see a new low.

  • oaktree246

    One other good indicator: number of Federal Permits for Federal camping. For disabled or elderly: it can go as low as $7/night, including electric hookups. It is a major survival tool. A complementary good: price of trailers and RVs. I believe it is holding steady. It’s not a bad thing to have a back up roof over your head. Just keep it away from the creditors.

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    I always heard peanut butter sales were the #1 economic indicator of the economy being in a recession — no money for lunchmeant = peanut butter and jelly time.

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